Josh Pate Best Bets: Week 11 College Football Picks, Predictions

On Sundays, Tuesdays and Thursdays, college football analyst Josh Pate provides his picks aboard the Ramen Noodle Express for the coming weekend, offering a preview for Week 11. He dished out his first pick, an ACC game, on Sunday night.

Pate made his picks at the end of Sunday’s episode of the Josh Pate’s College Football Show. First, he recapped how last weekend went.

“We did really good yesterday on the Ramen Noodle Express,” Pate said. “Honestly, man, we went 7-4. I thought we were going to do better than that. So that’s what this weekend is for.”

With that, here are the picks for Josh Pate in Week 11. As he makes more picks throughout the week they will be added here.

Florida State (+2.5) at Clemson

Florida State has to go on the road to Clemson, but as Josh Pate points out that hasn’t been a particularly daunting task for teams of late. In fact, Clemson is coming off a 46-45 loss to Duke. Meanwhile, the Seminoles got some mojo back with a 42-7 dusting of Wake Forest the last time out. Could that snowball into some confidence?

Josh Pate: “As I look at the board to start the week, one game stands out to me. One thing stands out to me. And that is that Clemson is laying points this week against Florida State. And at my core, I don’t agree with it. Florida State +2.5, I can’t believe I’m saying it, is going to be our first Best Bet of the week. We think the wrong team is favored. Clemson has lost six consecutive games against Power Four opponents in Death Valley. So it’s not the toughest place to play right now. And yes, it is a bounce-back spot. I don’t care. I’ll take Florida State +2.5.”

Maryland (+1.5) at Rutgers

Maryland has lost four straight games, including the last one in blowout fashion to Indiana. But Rutgers has lost five of its last six, including its last one in blowout fashion at Illinois. This is a spot Pate likes Maryland to come through, even after a weird week on social media.

Josh Pate: “We’re adding Maryland. Oh I think also I should break some news. I should take this opportunity to inform you Mike Locksley is still the head coach at Maryland, people. There was a false report out there that somehow is still up that Mike Locksley got fired at Maryland. I’m halfway convinced people are betting this game thinking Locks got fired and they’re betting Rutgers against an interim head coach at Maryland. No, Mike Locksley is still the head coach at Maryland. I don’t know what the future holds for him, but this week we’re betting him. Now let’s double-check the line, do we have -1.5 or +1.5? I had it minus earlier today. If it crossed zero it crossed zero. We’re taking Maryland +1.5.”

Kansas (+5.5) at Arizona

Kansas defeated Oklahoma 38-21 last weekend and Josh Pate expects the Jayhawks to build on their momentum. Kansas started slow against the Cowboys, but picked up steam after halftime, scoring four touchdowns in the second half.

Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels completed 13-of-his-19 pass attempts for 110 yards and two touchdowns, without throwing an interception. The Jayhawks will need Daniels to have an impressive showing on Saturday to cover the spread.

Alabama (-9.5) vs. LSU

Josh Pate said Alabama is the model’s favorite pick of the week. In fairness, Alabama will be LSU’s first opponent since the school fired head coach Brian Kelly. Other schools, like Penn State, have struggled to pick up wins after parting ways with their leader during the season.

Worse, Alabama is firing on cylinders currently. The Crimson Tide have won their last seven games, most recently defeating South Carolina. On Saturday, Alabama QB Ty Simpson will aim to carve up the Tigers’ defense.

Mississippi State (+9.5) vs. Georgia

Mississippi State started conference play with a 0-4 record. However, the Bulldogs lost three of the games by a combined 16 points. Last Saturday, Mississippi State finally got over its conference play hump, downing Arkansas 38-35.

Evidently, Pate believes the Bulldogs will carry their momentum into their showdown with Georgia this weekend. Mississippi State can rack up yards in a hurry. The team averages 408.2 yards of offense per game, more than other SEC powerhouses such as Texas and Oklahoma.

Sam Houston State (+20.5) at Oregon State

Sam Houston State is 0-8 this season. But, Pate doesn’t need the Bearkats to pick up their first win of the year on Saturday. He simply needs them to cover.

In fairness, Oregon State is only 2-6 this season. However, the Beavers have been hot lately. They’re riding into the Week 11 matchup on a two-game win streak.

Oregon at Iowa under 42.5

Pate rarely delves into the world of over/unders, but he couldn’t help himself this week. The college football expert is expecting a grind-it-out rock fight between the Ducks and Hawkeyes on a frigid afternoon in Iowa City.

Josh Pate: “I’ve been monitoring this forecast very closely. … We’re looking at moderate rain, temperatures in the upper-30s. We may—and I can’t promise anything—but I have it on good authority, we may see a transition to snow in the second half.”

UConn (+8.5) vs. Duke

UConn has won five of its last six games, most recently defeating UAB in a 38-19 blowout. Meanwhile, Duke is also coming off a win, a 46-45 win over Clemson. However, the Blue Devils could overlook the Huskies on Saturday.

Pate: “We have a huge lean. UConn is one of our favorite bets of the week. Give us UConn +8.5. That is an added best bet.”

Bowling Green (+2.5) at Eastern Michigan

Pate loves betting on Eastern Michigan games, and this week is no exception. The Eagles have lost back-to-back games and Pate believes they won’t pull out of their downward spiral this week.

Bowling Green has lost three consecutive games and will be hungry for a win Saturday. It’s worth noting Pate was initially hesitant to bet on this game, but ultimately placed money on the Falcons to cover.

Penn State (+14.5) vs. Indiana

Indiana is bludgeoning teams this year. Yet, Pate has faith in the Nittany Lions. In fairness, Penn State kept it close in the first half against Ohio State last week. Nonetheless, some fans may find it difficult to ride with Pate on this bet, and he can’t blame them.

Josh Pate: “I am terrified, petrified, horrified at what I’m about to do. Indiana plays at Penn State tomorrow—one of the model’s five favorite bets. … Look at this pen, watch my hand shake as I write it down. It’s not just the caffeine, but we’re gonna do it.”

FIU (+1.5) at Middle Tennessee State

Pate went off the beaten path for this pick, but that’s where fans can find the best bets. Middle Tennessee State has walked away winless in its last five outings. Pate doesn’t expect the Blue Raiders to turn their fate around this week.

Josh Pate: “We will go to the ends of earth to find value in November. … We’re going to move on this one. Right now, we’re taking FIU +1.5 as a best bet. First time I think we’ve bet on them all year.”