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Joe Lunardi explains how Atlantic 10 championship impacts bubble watch for Texas, SMU

Barkley-Truaxby: Barkley Truax03/15/26BarkleyTruax

VCU is set to take on Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Conference championship game on Sunday. It’s a matchup that could decide whether the A-10 is going to send three teams to the NCAA Tournament.

This came after Saint Louis (28-5) lost to the Flyers 70-69 in the semifinal on Saturday. The Billikens are expected to get in, but for others that’s not the case. For some teams on the bubble, such as the Texas Longhorns and SMU Mustangs, will have to watch the upcoming title game very closely. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi explained why during an appearance on SportsCenter ahead of Selection Sunday.

“There five spots by automatic bid (on Sunday), but only one to be determined by the committee, and it comes down to Dayton, VCU and the Atlantic 10 championship,” Lunardi said. “If you look at our bubble watch, if Dayton wins, VCU goes back into the at-large pool, probably in the ‘last four in’ group, which is going to bump somebody from that group.

“Our two bottom teams there: SMU and Texas. So, (if) Dayton wins, either Texas is out, SMU is out, or VCU is out, if they don’t take a third Atlantic 10 team. Any team that’s tight (on the bubble) are not a fan of the Dayton Flyers.”

In Lunardi’s last bracketology update before Selection Sunday, his last four in were Missouri, Miami (OH), SMU and Texas in that order. Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State and New Mexico are his first four out.

Texas was dropped from the SEC Tournament in the first round, losing 76-66 to an Ole Miss team that went on to fall just shy of the championship game as a 15-seed. The Longhorns are 18-14 overall as a result, finishing with a 9-9 record vs. the SEC during the regular season.

SMU split its two games in the ACC Tournament earlier in the week, ultimately being bested by Louisville 62-58 in the second round. SMU is 20-13 overall, but finished 8-10 vs. ACC competition.

Tip-off between VCU and Dayton is set for 1 p.m. ET live on CBS. The men’s bracket will be revealed later this afternoon with coverage beginning on the same network at 6 p.m. ET.