Field of 64 Projections: Week 9 chaos leads to major overhaul in NCAA Tournament picture

Nine ranked teams lost their weekend series during Week 9, including six teams ranked in the top ten. As a result, there is a major overhaul in On3’s latest Field of 64 projections.

There are two new hosts this week, and neither team has been a host in any of our previous projections this season. The bubble has also been completely reshaped, while many conference champions look different this week as well.

In terms of NCAA Tournament bids, the SEC leads the way with 12. They’re followed by the ACC (8), Big 12 (8), Big Ten (6), Conference USA (3), American (2), and Sun Belt (2). On the hosting line, the SEC leads the way with six, followed by the ACC (4), Big 12 (2), Big Ten (2), Sun Belt (1), and Oregon State as an independent.

As a reminder, the NCAA Tournament selection committee will be seeding teams 1-32 this season, and teams will then be placed into four-team pods to determine their placement into the field. For an in-depth breakdown of the changes, read here.

Field of 64 Projections: Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Baylor, East Carolina, Michigan, TCU
First Four Out: LSU, Texas State, Louisiana, Oklahoma State
Next Four Out: BYU, Troy, UAB, Clemson

Baylor moves its way up into the last four in after sitting among the first four out last week. East Carolina and TCU both fall from safely in the field last week to last four in. LSU was in as a 2-seed last week, but drop out of the field altogether after dropping their series to Ole Miss. Texas State and Oklahoma State both fall out of the field and into the first four out as well.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (1)*
2. Missouri State (32)
3. Kansas State
4. Nevada*

Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but UCLA remains the top overall seed once again. The Bruins are now 33-2 overall, 18-0 in Big Ten play, No. 1 in RPI and currently on a 27-game winning streak. It’d be surprising if they aren’t the top seed at this point. Missouri State gets the nod as the final 2-seed and is sent to Los Angeles, as they’re 12-3 in Conference USA and No. 16 in RPI. Kansas State also finds itself in LA after re-entering the field just above the last four in.

Lawrence Regional

1. Kansas (16)*
2. Ole Miss (17)
3. Michigan
4. Saint Joseph’s*

Kansas swept UCF over the weekend, improving to 12-3 in the Big 12 and No. 21 in RPI. The Jayhawks are our projected Big 12 champion this week, and get the nod as our final host as a result. Ole Miss just misses out as the first team on the 2-seed line, and the Rebels are 8-7 in the SEC and No. 13 in RPI. Michigan also remains as one of the last four teams in, now No. 51 in RPI with room to improve it even more.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (9)*
2. Arkansas (23)
3. NC State
4. Rider*

Coastal Carolina remains our projected Sun Belt champion, and they come in as the No. 9 overall seed in this week’s Field of 64. The Chanticleers are 13-2 in Sun Belt play and No. 9 in RPI, also sitting No. 9 in current strength of schedule. They’re joined by Arkansas and NC State along with Rider, making this an intriguing regional. Arkansas is back up to a 2-seed, now 8-7 in the SEC and No. 35 in RPI after sweeping Alabama. NC State is 8-7 in the ACC and No. 61 in RPI after a series win over Duke.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (8)
2. UC Santa Barbara (28)*
3. Arizona State
4. Indiana State*

Oregon State continues to win through its independent schedule, and comes in as our No. 8 overall seed this week. The Beavers are 28-7 on the year and No. 7 in RPI, and feel pretty safe as a host at this point. UC Santa Barbara comes to Corvallis as our projected Big West champion, currently No. 33 in RPI and 10-5 in Big West play. Arizona State drops down from the 2-seed line to a 3-seed this week.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (5)
2. UTSA (26)*
3. Baylor
4. Oral Roberts*

Texas has been our No. 2 overall seed, but they drop down to No. 5 overall in this week’s Field of 64. The Longhorns dropped both games over the weekend against Texas A&M, and currently sit 27-7 overall, 9-5 in the SEC and No. 2 in RPI. But no longer our projected SEC champion, Texas drops a couple spots. They’re joined by a pair of Texas schools, including UTSA, who is back as our projected American champion this week.

Tuscaloosa Regional

1. Alabama (12)
2. Nebraska (22)
3. Gonzaga*
4. Wofford*

Alabama was our 9th overall seed last week, and drop down to No. 12 this week after being swept by Arkansas. The Crimson Tide are 8-7 in the SEC and No. 5 in RPI, with the No. 3 strength of schedule to boost their resume. Nebraska remains a 2-seed this week, coming to Tuscaloosa. They’re 12-3 in the Big Ten and No. 27 in RPI after dropping their series to Oregon.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (13)
2. Southern Miss (20)
3. Cincinnati
4. Southeastern Louisiana*

Auburn picked up a series win over Kentucky this weekend, and the Tigers come in as the No. 13 overall seed as a host. They are 8-7 in SEC play, No. 10 in RPI and currently sit No. 1 in strength of schedule. Southern Miss struggled over the weekend, dropping their series at Louisiana. Still, they sit 8-7 in the Sun Belt and No. 14 in RPI, also No. 11 in strength of schedule. Cincinnati remains a 3-seed for another week.

Gainesville Regional

1. Florida (4)
2. Miami (29)
3. Campbell*
4. North Florida*

Hello, Florida. The Gators were hosting as our No. 16 overall seed in last week’s Field of 64, and they’re up to No. 4 this week. They just took the series against Georgia, improving to 9-6 in SEC play, No. 4 in RPI and No. 2 in strength of schedule. Miami continues its upwards trend, up to 8-7 in the ACC and No. 31 in RPI after a series win over Wake Forest.

Atlanta Regional

1. Georgia Tech (2)*
2. UCF (30)
3. Purdue
4. Fairleigh Dickinson*

Georgia Tech is up to the No. 2 overall seed this week, and they’d be a slam dunk No. 1 if it wasn’t for UCLA. The Yellow Jackets are 30-5 overall, 15-3 in the ACC and No. 3 in ACC after this weekend’s sweep over Florida State. That’s quite the statement, and they’re right on UCLA’s heels at the top. UCF was hosting last week, but falls pretty far down to the No. 30 overall seed after being swept by Kansas. And Purdue enters the field above the last four in this week.

Charlottesville Regional

1. Virginia (15)
2. Oregon (18)
3. East Carolina
4. UConn*

Virginia picked up a series win at Notre Dame this weekend, and they’re the No. 15 overall for a second straight week. They sit at 10-8 in the ACC, No. 17 in RPI and No. 20 in strength of schedule. Oregon is moving up on the 2-seed line too, and are currently 10-5 in the Big Ten and No. 34 in RPI. East Carolina dropped its series at Tulane, dropping them to the bubble. While there’s not a ton of the resume, the Pirates hold on with RPI at No. 36 with a strength of schedule of No. 16.

College Station Regional

1. Texas A&M (10)
2. Boston College (24)
3. TCU
4. Binghamton*

Texas A&M wasn’t hosting last week, but they’re all the way up to No. 10 overall in On3’s latest Field of 64. The Aggies just took both games this past weekend against Texas, and are up to 9-5 in the SEC while sitting No. 12 in RPI. They have a clear path to hosting as a top eight and getting even higher down the stretch. Boston College remains a 2-seed, currently 11-7 in the ACC and No. 29 in RPI. TCU drops down to the bubble at 8-7 in the Big 12 and No. 50 in RPI, and get the nod as one of the last teams in.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (7)
2. Kentucky (25)
3. High Point*
4. Wright State*

Florida State was swept over the weekend by Georgia Tech, but they hold onto the top eight as our No. 7 overall seed this week. The Seminoles are 9-6 in ACC play and still No. 6 in RPI with the No. 4 strength of schedule. Kentucky dropped its series over the weekend to Auburn, but is 7-8 in the SEC and No. 19 in RPI. The Wildcats hold on to a 2-seed, and aren’t out of the hosting discussion.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (6)
2. Jacksonville State (27)*
3. Tennessee
4. Yale*

North Carolina remains our No. 6 overall for a second consecutive Field of 64. The Tar Heels took the series at Clemson over the weekend, and are up to 13-5 in the ACC and No. 11 in RPI. Jacksonville State comes to Chapel Hill as the 2-seed, holding onto our projected Conference USA title despite dropping the series to Liberty. Tennessee also re-joins the field, coming in as a 3-seed and above the bubble after sweeping Mississippi State.

Los Angeles Regional

1. USC (11)
2. Oklahoma (21)
3. California Baptist*
4. Bucknell*

USC swept Iowa over the weekend, and are 30-7 overall and 13-5 in the Big Ten. The Trojans sit No. 8 in RPI, and are a lock to host at this point. Oklahoma was in the mix to host this week, but ultimately come in as the No. 21 overall seed. The Sooners took the series from Vanderbilt this weekend, improving to 7-8 in the SEC, No. 15 in RPI and No. 10 in strength of schedule.

Morgantown Regional

1. West Virginia (14)
2. Mississippi State (19)
3. Liberty
4. Eastern Illinois*

West Virginia’s series win over Texas Tech keeps them in the hosting mix, and they come in above projected Big 12 champion Kansas. The Mountaineers are currently 10-5 in the Big 12 and No. 18 in RPI, putting them in position to stay at home for regional weekend. Mississippi State has really fallen, dropping down to a 2-seed. The Bulldogs have been swept in back-to-back SEC series, falling to 7-8 in league play and No. 22 in RPI. The path is still there to get back into the mix. Liberty was a tough cut from the 2-seed line, but comes in as a 3-seed for this week.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (3)*
2. Wake Forest (31)
3. Miami (OH)*
4. Bethune-Cookman*

Georgia dropped two out of three to Florida over the weekend, but move up in seeding in this week’s Field of 64. That’s because they come in as our new SEC champion, due to their 11-4 league record paired with Texas dropping. The Bulldogs are No. 20 in RPI. Wake Forest dropped a series to Miami, and is currently sitting at 9-9 in ACC play with RPI at No. 25..