Field of 64 Projections: Week 11 leads to multiple new hosts, notable changes in NCAA Tournament

Week 11 brought even more changes to the potential NCAA Tournament in college baseball. In On3’s latest Field of 64 projections, there are two new hosts and a lot of movement throughout the field.

The SEC leads the way again in overall bids to the tournament with 12. They’re followed by the ACC (9), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), Conference USA (3), American (2), Big West (2) and Sun Belt (2).

As far as hosting, the SEC again leads the charge with seven. The remaining hosts come from the ACC (3), Big Ten (2), Sun Belt (2), Big 12 (1), and Oregon State as an independent.

This will be the first season with the NCAA Tournament selection committee seeding teams from 1-32. Teams will then be placed into four-team pods before being placed into the field. For a full breakdown of the new format and what’s changing, read here.

*denotes automatic qualifier for conference champion

Field of 64 Projections: Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Michigan, Pitt
First Four Out: NC State, Texas State, Vanderbilt, UAB
Next Four Out: Arkansas State, Kansas State, Purdue, BYU

Kentucky has been comfortably in the field, but they’ve now lost six SEC series in a row. Their RPI is still at 39, though, keeping them on the right side of the bubble with minimal margin for error. Virginia Tech and Pitt join the field this week. Virginia Tech is up to 38 in RPI with the No. 4 strength of schedule, now 11-13 in ACC play. Pitt is up to 45 in RPI, currently 10-11 in ACC play.

NC State remains the first team out, currently 52 in RPI. Texas State also stays in the first four out, while Vanderbilt and UAB fall from in the field last week to first four out this week. Arkansas State and BYU remain in the hunt as part of the next four out. Kansas State and Purdue were both last four in last week, but drop out after series losses.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (1)*
2. Arizona State (31)
3. Kent State*
4. Nevada*

It’s still UCLA as the top overall seed in this week’s Field of 64 projections. Despite losing Sunday’s series finale to Sacramento State, the Bruins had a 3-1 week and currently sit at 39-4 overall, 21-0 in the Big Ten, and 1 in RPI. They’re not a guarantee to be the top seed yet, but it would take a lot unseat UCLA at this point.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (16)
2. Alabama (18)
3. Oklahoma State
4. Creighton*

Florida State stumbled over the weekend, and barely hold onto the final hosting spot this week. After being swept by Stanford, the Seminoles are 29-14 overall, 12-9 in ACC play and 16 in RPI. They do have the No. 7 strength of schedule, which keeps them in the top 16 for now. Alabama drops out of the hosting race this week. Despite being at 7 in RPI and No. 2 in strength of schedule, the Crimson Tide have lost three straight SEC series. They’re still very much in the mix, but get booted out for the time being.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (9)
2. Miami (24)
3. Kentucky
4. Cal Poly*

Oregon State is currently 33-9 on the season and 10 in RPI. They’re No. 35 in strength of schedule as an independent, and come in as the No. 9 overall seed this week. The Beavers feel pretty good about hosting right now, but one bad weekend could change things. Miami continues to creep up, currently 32-12, 12-9 in the ACC and 31 in RPI. Cal Poly also comes in as our new projected Big West champion.

Lawrence Regional

1. Kansas (8)*
2. Arkansas (27)
3. Saint Joseph’s*
4. Wright State*

Kansas keeps moving up, finding themselves in the top eight in this week’s Field of 64. The Jayhawks are in commanding lead of the Big 12, currently 17-4 in league play with a 33-11 overall record. They’re also currently at 12 in RPI and have the second-most Quad 1 wins in the country with 12. Arkansas is still a 2-seed, currently 30 in RPI with a 29-16 overall record including 11-10 in SEC play. The path to hosting isn’t done yet, but the Razorbacks need to make a big move quickly.

College Station Regional

1. Texas A&M (5)
2. Missouri State (27)
3. UTSA*
4. Oral Roberts*

Texas A&M is moving higher and higher up, and they’re the No. 5 overall seed this week. The Aggies are 33-8 overall, 14-6 in SEC play and currently at 5 in RPI after winning a series at Florida over the weekend. If they stay near the top of the SEC, they’d likely be seeded even higher, too. Even after being swept by Louisiana Tech, Missouri State holds on to a 2 seed. They’re still at 23 in RPI and No. 38 in strength of schedule.

Los Angeles Regional

1. USC (12)
2. UCF (22)
3. Gonzaga*
4. California Baptist*

USC is back into the hosting mix after a sweep over Purdue. The Trojans are 34-11 on the season, 16-8 in Big Ten play and currently at 9 in RPI. Top eight is still in play for USC as well, as long as they don’t stumble down the stretch. At 24 in RPI and 14-7 in Big 12 play, UCF isn’t completely out of the hosting mix either.

Starkville Regional

1. Mississippi State (13)
2. Virginia (20)
3. TCU
4. Indiana State*

Mississippi State is back into the top 16 as a host in this week’s Field of 64. The Bulldogs are 34-10 overall, 13-8 in the SEC, and currently at 15 in RPI aver sweeping LSU this past weekend. There’s still teams right on the cusp of hosting, though, so they aren’t solidified yet. One team that fell out from hosting is Virginia. Now at 12-12 in ACC play, 29-16 overall and at 21 in RPI, Virginia gets booted from the top 16. Brian O’Connor coaching against his former team would be a fun storyline in this regional.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (4)
2. Tennessee (29)
3. High Point*
4. Penn*

North Carolina remains our No. 4 overall seed, currently 36-8-1 on the year and 17-7 in ACC play. The Tar Heels are also at 4 in RPI and No. 22 in strength of schedule. UNC has 17 wins across Quads 1 and 2, and are 19-1-1 in non-conference play. All of a sudden, Tennessee is firmly back in the mix as a 2-seed and they could still push to host, if everything goes right. Currently 29-15, 10-11 in the SEC and 29 in RPI, the Vols aren’t out of it yet.

Atlanta Regional

1. Georgia Tech (2)*
2. Jacksonville State (32)*
3. Cincinnati
4. Fairleigh Dickinson*

Georgia Tech remains our No. 2 overall seed in yet another Field of 64. The Yellow Jackets are 36-7 on the year, 19-5 in ACC play and currently at 2 in RPI. They also sit at No. 19 in strength of schedule and are tied for the most Quad 1 wins in the country with 13. Hosting is all but locked up already. And the same can just about be said for top eight.

Gainesville Regional

1. Florida (15)
2. Nebraska (17)
3. Liberty
4. Campbell*

Florida is holding onto a spot as a regional host, for now. The Gators lost their last series against Texas A&M, and currently sit at 29-16, 11-10 in the SEC and are 14 in RPI. They do sit at No. 1 in strength of schedule and have 13 Quad wins. That’s a resume that’s capable of entering the top eight conversation again, if they can have a consistent finish. Nebraska is still right on the cusp, currently 13 in RPI with a 33-11 overall record including 17-4 in the Big Ten. They’re the first team outside of hosting this week.

Oxford Regional

1. Ole Miss (10)
2. Boston College (23)
3. UC Santa Barbara
4. Rider*

Ole Miss is once again moving up, this week up to the No. 10 overall seed. The Rebels are 31-14 overall, 11-10 in the SEC and currently 11 in RPI, with the No. 5 strength of schedule. If the teams in front of them lose, Ole Miss is certainly in the top eight mix. Boston College’s run for hosting isnt done yet, either, and they’re currently 25 in RPI at 33-14 overall and 16-8 in ACC play. They’ll need to improve that RPI a bit, though, and it’s a crowded bunch of teams in front of them.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (7)
2. West Virginia (25)
3. Southeast Missouri State*
4. North Florida*

Auburn continues to be a comfortable host, and they’re the No. 7 overall seed in our latest Field of 64. The Tigers are 30-13 overall, 12-9 in SEC play, currently at 6 in RPI and have the No. 3 strength of schedule. A challenging final three weeks remain, but a strong finish would all but lock Auburn in as a top eight. West Virginia remains in the mix, too, but their RPI at 27 is an issue they’ll need to fix.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (6)*
2. Wake Forest (26)
3. Michigan
4. Bucknell*

Georgia remains a bit tricky to seed, as they currently lead the SEC with a 15-6 league record, but are down at 19 in RPI. The Bulldogs have the No. 26 strength of schedule and 10 Quad 1 wins, but the weight of winning the SEC regular season alone should give the resume an even bigger boost. Wake Forest can’t completely be ruled out of hosting, either, as they are currently at 22 in RPI.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (11)*
2. Oregon (21)
3. Virginia Tech
4. Binghamton*

Coastal Carolina lost twice this week, but won the series over Texas State. The Chanticleers remain in pretty commanding lead of the Sun Belt, and are 30-13 overall, 17-4 in league play and 17 in RPI. They also boast the No. 17 strength of schedule, putting them in position to push for the top eight, if things go right. Oregon is still in the mix, too, currently 26 in RPI at 32-11 overall and 15-6 in the Big Ten.

Hattiesburg Regional

1. Southern Miss (14)
2. Oklahoma (19)
3. Western Carolina*
4. Lamar*

Southern Miss’ resume is too good to not host right now. They’re the No. 14 seed in our latest Field of 64, but could push for even higher at 31-13 overall, 13-8 in Sun Belt play, 8 in RPI with the No. 6 strength of schedule. If they stumble, that could change, but they’re right there feeling pretty good about hosting. Oklahoma is right on the hunt too, currently 18 in RPI at 29-14 overall and 11-10 in the SEC.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (3)
2. East Carolina (30)
3. Pitt
4. Bethune-Cookman*

Texas has a few teams on its tail for the third overall seed, but they hold onto it at 32-9 overall, 13-7 in SEC play and currently at 3 in RPI. The Longhorns are an easy host at this point, but they’ll need to finish strong to stay seeded this highly. East Carolina was out of the field last week, but all the way up to a 2-seed this week. The Pirates’ 4-0 week and sweep over USF has them at 28 in RPI with the No. 20 strength of schedule, which was enough of a boost to get them comfortably in this week.