Field of 64 Projections: Two new hosts headline changes to NCAA Tournament after Week 6

After a crazy Week 6 of college baseball that saw a no-hitter, a coaching change and plenty of upsets, we’ve made changes to our Field of 64 projections. Two new hosts headline the movement, with plenty of changes throughout the entire NCAA Tournament.

The SEC again leads the way with 13 teams in the projected field. They are followed by the ACC (10), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (4), Sun Belt (3), American (2) and Big West (2). On the hosting line, the SEC has six teams. The remaining hosts come from the ACC (4), Big 12 (2), Big Ten (2) and Sun Belt (2).

The weekend was headlined by Alabama’s Tyler Fay tossing a nine-inning no-hitter, and also South Carolina moving on from head coach Paul Manieri. But that was only the start of what was a great weekend across the sport.

Now, it’s time to dive into this week’s NCAA Tournament projections. This story reflects data entering Monday, March 23.

*denotes automatic qualifiers for conference champions

Field of 64 Projections: Last Four In, First Four Out

Last Four In: UC Santa Barbara, Boston College, Kansas, Texas Tech
First Four Out: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, East Carolina, Miami

On the bubble, UC Santa Barbara, Boston College, Kansas and Texas Tech are the last teams in. UCSB has lost their last two Big West series, and their margin of error is getting thin. Boston College is off to a hot start, which will help give them cushion as they face a challenging schedule down the stretch. Kansas and Texas Tech also get in for the Big 12 as the last two teams in. They narrowly edge out the next teams on the bubble, including Pitt, Oklahoma State, ECU and Miami.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (1)*
2. Notre Dame (32)
3. Cal Poly*
4. California Baptist*

UCLA sits at the top as our first overall seed for a second consecutive week. The Bruins remain undefeated in Big Ten play at 9-0, and get the nod over Texas for the No. 1 seed after the sixth week of the season. Notre Dame surges up to a 2-seed here, coming off of a weekend sweep over Clemson and improving to 6-3 in ACC play.

Hattiesburg Regional

1. Southern Miss (16)
2. Oregon State (17)
3. Louisville
4. Southeast Missouri State*

Oregon State got the nod as a host last week, but they fall out in favor of Southern Miss in this week’s Field of 64. The Beavers just have such a thin margin of error with their lack of remaining RPI opportunities on weekends. Southern Miss is 3-3 to start Sun Belt play, but 19-5 overall and looking like a legitimate hosting threat. Louisville and Southeast Missouri State round out the Hattiesburg Regional.

Los Angeles Regional

1. USC (9)
2. Florida (23)
3. Texas Tech
4. Nevada*

USC is still sitting with just one loss on the season, at 24-1 overall and 9-1 in Big Ten play. The Trojans, if they continue their current pace, will be a slam-dunk host with a real case for the top eight. Florida has been right on the hosting bubble, but fall further onto the 2-line after being swept by Alabama over the weekend.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (8)
2. NC State (27)
3. USC Upstate*
4. Columbia*

Georgia is off to a 20-5 start, including 4-2 in the SEC. They continue to impress, and get the final top eight seed this week as a regional host. NC State is another potential host, but they fall on the 2-seed line for this week. With a couple of good weeks in ACC play, the Wolfpack could work themselves into the hosting conversation.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (5)
2. USF (26)
3. Kansas
4. North Florida*

Florida picked up a big series win over NC State this past weekend, cementing them as a top eight host and our No. 5 overall seed in thish week’s Field of 64. The Seminoles are joined by USF as the 2-seed, as they remain our projected American Conference champion. Kansas also finds itself in Tallahassee, making this a sneaky-fun regional with North Florida here to.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (12)
2. Tennessee (21)
3. UNC Wilmington*
4. Wright State*

North Carolina and Tennessee both won tight series this weekend. UNC beat Louisville in two out of three, and come in as our No. 12 overall seed. Tennessee squeaked by Missouri in their weekend series, and continue to look like a 2-seed type of team at this point. Still, the Volunteers have the talent to push higher, while the Tar Heels could also find themselves as a higher seed if they handle their business.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (13)*
2. Texas A&M (20)
3. Wake Forest
4. Lamar*

Coastal Carolina picked up their second straight sweep to begin Sun Belt play, sitting at 6-0 after this past weekend against James Madison. Two weeks ago, Texas A&M and Wake Forest both looked like potential hosts themselves. The Aggies are still within striking distance, but Wake Forest is 1-5 in their last two weekends after a 3-0 start in ACC play. They’re in need of a quick turnaround, with returning to the hosting picture is still within reason.

Starkville Regional

1. Mississippi State (4)
2. Kansas State (30)
3. UConn*
4. Holy Cross*

Mississippi State is on the rise in this week’s Field of 64, coming in as our No. 4 overall seed. The Bulldogs are 20-4 overall and 4-2 in the SEC after sweeping Vanderbilt over the weekend. Kansas State remains on the 2-seed line this week, despite losing their series to Arizona State over the weekend. UConn and Holy Cross also come in here, with the Huskies becoming our projected Big East champion.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (2)*
2. Nebraska (31)
3. Kent State*
4. Bethune-Cookman*

Texas and UCLA are neck-and-neck in the race for the top overall seed, but the Longhorns come in as the No. 2 overall seed for another week. Still, if they win the SEC and keep playing how they are, they’ll have a compelling case. Nebraska comes in as their 2-seed, and the Cornhuskers entered the D1Baseball top 25 this week. They’re trending upwards with plenty of time to further bolster their resume.

Morgantown Regional

1. West Virginia (15)
2. Ole Miss (19)
3. Boston College
4. Bryant*

West Virginia has been steady this season, currently sitting 16-4 and 5-1 in Big 12 play. The Mountaineers continue to build a stronger case for themselves as a regional host. Another potential host is Ole Miss, who come in just short as one of the top four 2-seeds this week. Boston College is another team trending upwards. Currently 6-3 in ACC play, they’re looking more and more like a NCAA Tournament caliber team.

Charlottesville Regional

1. Virginia (10)
2. UCF (22)
3. LSU
4. George Mason*

Virginia stays right on the verge of cracking the top eight, but comes in as our No. 10 overall seed this week. They’re part of an intriguing regional, with UCF as the 2-seed and LSU as the 3-seed. UCF is 5-1 in Big Ten play, and just took a series from TCU. LSU, on the other hand, is 2-4 in SEC play with two series losses. The defending national champions need to turn things around in a hurry, as they trend down closer to the bubble.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (7)
2. Clemson (28)
3. UTSA
4. Rider*

Arkansas is coming off of a 4-1 week, sitting 18-7 overall and 4-2 in the SEC to hold onto a top eight seed in this week’s Field of 64. The Razorbacks have room to both rise or fall on the seed line, with some challenging tests awaiting them in the SEC. Clemson is currently 1-5 in the ACC after being swept by Notre Dame. They still get the nod as a 2-seed, but they’re in need of a turnaround quickly. UTSA remains our second bid out of the American, getting an at-large spot.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (6)
2. Cincinnati (25)
3. Louisiana
4. Murray State*

Auburn battled Texas hard this past weekend, but ultimately dropped the series. The Tigers don’t fall far, though, holding onto the No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament after coming in at No. 4 last week. Cincinnati continues to look like a legit 2-seed, while Louisiana finds themselves trending in the wrong direction after being swept by Texas State this past weekend.

Phoenix Regional

1. Arizona State (11)*
2. Kentucky (24)
3. UC Santa Barbara
4. Gonzaga*

Arizona State remains our projected Big 12 champion, and inches closer to the top eight as our No. 11 overall seed this week. They’re joined by Kentucky as the 2-seed, who hosted last week but falls out of the top 16 after dropping their series to Ole Miss over the weekend. UC Santa Barbara is no longer our Big West champion, but gets the nod as an at-large team as one of the last teams in the field.

Norman Regional

1. Oklahoma (14)
2. Oregon (18)
3. Dallas Baptist*
4. Oral Roberts*

Oklahoma remains a regional host this week, taking the series at LSU over the weekend despite dropping the opener. The Sooners are 19-5 and 4-2 in the SEC. Oregon looks like another potential host, coming in as the No. 18 overall seed in our latest Field of 64. Dallas Baptist started slow, but gets the nod as our Conference USA champion.

Atlanta Regional

1. Georgia Tech (3)*
2. Alabama (29)
3. Mercer*
4. Long Island*

No change at the top of the ACC, with Georgia Tech our projected champion and the No. 3 overall seed in the field. They’re joined by Alabama, who was a 3-seed last week but is up to the 2-seed line after sweeping Florida over the weekend. If things go right, the Crimson Tide could find themselves on the hosting bubble when it’s all said and done.