Field of 64 Projections: Two new hosts headline changes to NCAA Tournament after Week 10

Six ranked teams dropped their weekend series during Week 10, and the postseason picture has once again changed. Now it’s time for another round of Field of 64 projections.

For the second week in a row, we have two new teams hosting. For one of those teams, it’s their first time as a host in On3’s 2026 projections. The SEC leads the way on the hosting front again with seven. They are followed by the ACC (4), Sun Belt (2), Big 12 (1), Big Ten (1) and Oregon State as an independent.

As for the overall field, the SEC again sits in front with 13 bids to the NCAA Tournament. The other conferences with multiple bids are the Big 12 (8), ACC (7), Big Ten (6), Conference USA (3), American (2), and Sun Belt (2).

Of course, this will be the first season with the NCAA Tournament selection committee seeding teams from 1-32. Teams will then be placed into four-team pods before being placed into the field. For a full breakdown of the new format, read here.

Field of 64 Projections: Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Purdue, Baylor
First Four Out: NC State, Oklahoma State, East Carolina, Texas State
Next Four Out: BYU, LSU, Arkansas State, USF

There’s some movement on the bubble this week. Vanderbilt moves up from out of the field altogether to into the last four in after their series win over Kentucky. RPI is still an issue for the Commodores, currently at 72. Kansas State also drops down to the last four in, while Purdue and Baylor stay there for another week.

NC State and East Carolina were both in the field last week, and neither makes the cut after Week 10. Injuries are piling up for both teams, and NC State is down to 50 in RPI with not a ton on the resume. ECU’s RPI is down to 40 after a 2-2 week, but the Pirates have just four true weekend series wins on their resume at this point with not a ton of great opportunities left.

BYU keeps inching closer to the bubble, even after they dropped a series to Arizona State. With RPI now at 49, BYU is within striking distance. LSU is trending in the wrong direction, currently losers of six straight SEC games. Arkansas State and USF round out the bubble, with both teams having work to do but not out of the picture just yet.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (1)*
2. Arizona State (31)
3. California Baptist*
4. Fairleigh Dickinson*

No surprise at the top. UCLA remains our top overall seed in our latest Field of 64 after another strong showing. The Bruins are 36-3 overall, 21-0 in Big Ten play, and currently sit at No. 1 in RPI. At this point, it would be surprising if anybody other than UCLA was able to take the top overall seed. They have some cushion right now. Arizona State is also trending back upwards, up to a 2-seed again after winning their series against BYU this weekend.

Lawrence Regional

1. Kansas (16)*
2. Oklahoma (17)
3. Michigan
4. Xavier*

Kansas sits as our No. 16 overall seed for the second consecutive week as our projected Big 12 champion. The Jayhawks are 29-11 overall, 14-4 in Big 12 play and up to No. 22 in RPI, putting them firmly in position to host. Oklahoma was the first cut from the hosting line. The Sooners are 27-12, 10-8 in SEC play and No. 17 in RPI, but just barely get pushed out of the top 16.

College Station Regional

1. Texas A&M (9)
2. Oregon (23)
3. Baylor
4. Indiana State*

Texas A&M is up another spot in this week’s Field of 64, now our No. 9 overall seed. The Aggies are now 31-7 overall, 12-5 in SEC play and No. 8 in RPI. At second in current SEC standings, they’re very much in position to push into the top eight and even higher, too. Oregon doesn’t feel out of the hosting mix either, especially with USC falling. The Ducks are 28-11 overall and 12-6 in Big Ten play, currently No. 26 in RPI.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (8)
2. Arkansas (25)
3. Gonzaga*
4. Nevada*

Oregon State is still in position to host, and they again crack the top eight this week. The Beavers won’t have a conference tournament to boost their resume, but at 30-8 overall and No. 11 in RPI, they’re in a good spot right now. There’s not a ton on the resume, though, so a stumble could quickly change things. Arkansas is currently 26-15 overall, 9-9 in the SEC and No. 32 in RPI. They have a wide range of potential fates, but for now they fall in as the 25-seed.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (5)*
2. Missouri State (28)
3. UCF
4. Rider*

Georgia remains our projected SEC champion in this week’s Field of 64, but they do drop down to our 5th overall seed after being 3rd last week. That is due to the Bulldogs’ RPI, which is still at No. 20. That won’t stop them from being a top eight, as they’re currently 32-9 overall and atop the SEC at 13-5 in league play. But other teams, at this point, have slightly better metrics. Still, if Georgia keeps winning, they could easily rise back into one of the top seeds in the field.

Tuscaloosa Regional

1. Alabama (12)
2. USC (21)
3. UAB
4. Lamar*

Alabama is 28-13 on the year and 9-9 in SEC play. Even being 1-5 in their last two weekends, the Crimson Tide remain at No. 4 in RPI which keeps them very much in position to host. If they continue to stumble, though, Alabama could find themselves out of the top 16. That’s what happened to USC this week, as they were swept by Nebraska and fall down to the 2-seed line after previously hosting.

Oxford Regional

1. Ole Miss (13)
2. West Virginia (20)
3. Purdue
4. Little Rock*

One of our new hosts in this week’s Field of 64, Ole Miss cracks the top 16 for the first time this season. The Rebels are 7-2 across their last three SEC weekends, currently 29-12 overall, 10-8 in the SEC and No. 6 in RPI. That’s definitely a hosting-caliber resume, and they’ll push for the top eight if they continue the trend. West Virginia drops out from the hosting line this week, even after a series win. The Mountaineers are down to 27 in RPI, and that likely won’t be enough without a regular season Big 12 title to pair with it.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (4)
2. UC Santa Barbara (29)*
3. High Point*
4. Yale*

North Carolina was the headline of the weekend, taking two out of three against Georgia Tech. Still, the Tar Heels come in a couple of spots behind the Yellow Jackets, but move up into the top four. UNC is 33-7-1 on the year, 15-6 in ACC play and No. 7 in RPI. That’s a top eight lock, more than likely. UC Santa Barbara also continues to improve their stock, now up to 28 in RPI with a 25-12 record including 12-6 in the Big West.

Atlanta Regional

1. Georgia Tech (2)*
2. Liberty (32)
3. Kansas State
4. Bethune-Cookman*

Despite falling to North Carolina this weekend, Georgia Tech remains our No. 2 overall seed in this week’s Field of 64. They are still 32-7 overall, No. 3 in RPI and our projected ACC champion at 16-5 in league play so far, one game up on UNC. The Yellow Jackets’ gap between them and the teams seeded just below them is razor thin now, though, and they’ll need to finish strong to hold onto the No. 2 seed.

Charlottesville Regional

1. Virginia (15)
2. Nebraska (18)
3. Vanderbilt
4. Binghamton*

Virginia is hosting as our No. 15 overall seed for a third consecutive week. They’re 28-13 overall, 12-9 in ACC play and No. 19 in RPI after they took the series from Clemson over the weekend. There’s still a solid group of teams behind them pushing to host, so they’re far from a guarantee. Nebraska is one of the teams pushing them, coming off of a marquee series sweep over USC. The Cornhuskers are 31-9 overall, 15-3 in Big Ten play and No. 14 in RPI, finishing just short of hosting for now.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (10)*
2. Wake Forest (24)
3. Kentucky
4. Campbell*

Coastal Carolina remains our projected Sun Belt champion, currently 28-11 overall and 15-3 in league play. The Chanticleers are No. 13 in RPI, putting them in firmly as a host and right in the mix at one of the final top eight spots. Wake Forest is slowly inching higher and higher, currently 27-14, 11-10 in ACC play and No. 25 in RPI. The Demon Deacons, as well as Kentucky for that matter, have a path to hosting, although they’ll likely need some help along the way. The path is tougher for the Wildcats, but if they get back on track and improve their RPI from 29, they’ll be in the mix.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (7)
2. Tennessee (27)
3. Saint Joseph’s*
4. North Florida*

Florida State swept Notre Dame over the weekend, improving to 28-11 overall, 12-6 in ACC play and No. 10 in RPI. They hold onto their spot as the No. 7 overall seed again in this week’s Field of 64. The Seminoles could get pushed out of a top eight seed if the teams behind them finish strong, but regardless, FSU is feeling good as a host. They draw Tennessee as the 2-seed this week, who is 26-14, 8-10 in SEC play and No. 31 in RPI.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (6)
2. Miami (26)
3. Jacksonville State*
4. Wright State*

Auburn was our No. 13 overall seed last week, and they’re up to No. 6 now after winning a series over Florida. The Tigers are 27-12 overall, 10-8 in SEC play, No. 5 in RPI and have played the toughest schedule in the country. That’s an easy top eight resume. Miami is also trending upwards, up to No. 34 in RPI with a 29-11 overall record including 10-8 in the ACC. The Hurricanes have won five straight series. Jacksonville State is still our projected Conference USA champion, but they fall behind Missouri State and Liberty and onto the 3-seed line due to overall resumes and their RPI being the lowest of the bunch at 30.

Gainesville Regional

1. Florida (11)
2. Boston College (22)
3. TCU
4. Wofford*

Florida’s rollercoaster season continues, losing their series to Auburn. But still, the Gators are 28-13 overall, 10-8 in SEC play, No. 9 in RPI and they’ve played the third hardest schedule to this point. Florida’s feeling good as a host right now, and the top eight is still very much in play. They have 12 Quad 1 wins, tied for the most in the country. Boston College is also pushing to host. They’re 31-12, 14-7 in the ACC and No. 24 in RPI, putting them squarely in the discussion but just out, for now.

Hattiesburg Regional

1. Southern Miss (14)
2. Mississippi State (19)
3. Kent State*
4. Oral Roberts*

Once again, Southern Miss has returned to the top 16 as a regional host in this week’s Field of 64. They’re 28-12 overall, 11-7 in Sun Belt play and up to No. 12 in RPI, also No. 1 in non-conference RPI. The margin for error is pretty thin, but for now, Southern Miss gets the nod as a host. Mississippi State is one of the teams pushing them, now up to 30-10 overall and 10-8 in the SEC while sitting No. 18 in RPI.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (3)
2. UTSA (30)*
3. Cincinnati
4. Bucknell*

Texas is currently 30-8 overall, 11-6 in the SEC and No. 2 in RPI. That is enough to move them back up into the top three in terms of overall seeding. The Longhorns have the second-most Quad 1 wins in the country with 11, and are feeling great as a top eight right now. They get an in-state matchup with UTSA as the 2-seed in Austin, creeping up as our projected American Conference champion again.