Field of 64 Projections: NCAA Tournament picture begins to take shape after start of conference play

League play is underway for nearly every conference in college baseball. That means it’s time for an early edition of Field of 64 projections, looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament. Of course, this is a mix between what we’ve already seen and what we expect to happen the rest of the year.

It’s still early, and with so much baseball left to play, there will be plenty of changes in the coming weeks and months. But for now, it’s shaping up to be an electric year with a ton of quality teams across the nation.

Unsurprisingly, the SEC leads the way with 12 bids in our first Field of 64 projections. The other multi-bid leagues are the ACC (9), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), Sun Belt (3), American (2) and Conference USA (2). On the hosting line, the SEC also leads the charge with seven. The remaining hosts come from the ACC (4), Big Ten (2), Big 12 (1), Sun Belt (1), and independent (1).

This year also marks the first year of a new seeding format for baseball’s NCAA Tournament. Essentially, the selection committee will now seed teams from 1-32, as opposed to just 1-16 as in past years. Teams are then grouped into pods of four. Seeds 1-4 can only be paired with seeds 29-32 in regionals, seeds 5-8 with seeds 25-28, etc. For a full, in-depth breakdown of the changes, go here.

*denotes automatic qualifier as conference champion

Field of 64 Projections: Last Four In, First Four Out

Last Four In: Dallas Baptist, Duke, Texas Tech, Iowa
First Four Out: Kansas, Cal Poly, Miami, Vanderbilt

Predicting the bubble this far out is a very tough task, but this is how we see it playing out so far. As the season gets further along, we’ll expand the bubble and include an additional group, the “Next Four Out.” Vanderbilt is the most interesting team on this bubble. They have a ton of work to due because of their poor start, but this past weekend’s series win over LSU is enough to get them back in the conversation.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (1)*
2. UC Santa Barbara (31)*
3. Iowa
4. California Baptist*

UCLA comes in as our top projected seed in our initial Field of 64. Holding off the SEC winner for the top overall seed could be tough, but UCLA’s been as impressive as anyone so far this season. They’re joined in the Los Angeles Regional by UC Santa Barbara, Iowa and California Baptist. UCSB is an interesting case, and how the rest of the Big West looks RPI wise will be important to watch as always.

Lexington Regional

1. Kentucky (16)
2. Southern Miss (18)
3. UCF
4. George Mason*

Kentucky has been off to a great start in 2026, and they lock up the final top 16 spot as a regional host. The Wildcats just swept Alabama to open SEC play, and will be in a strong position resume wise if they keep handling their business. Southern Miss was a tough cut from the hosting line, but their series loss to Arkansas State in Sun Belt play knocked them out, for now.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (9)
2. Clemson (21)
3. Cincinnati
4. Central Connecticut State*

Georgia opened SEC play with a series win over Tennessee, and they’re hosting right outside of the top eight line to start off. The Bulldogs have plenty of room to move up, too. Clemson is another potential host, but for now, they come in on the 2-line. They’re a team to watch in the ACC, and would be a pretty scary 2-seed. Cincinnati also started red hot, but lost their Big 12 series opener against BYU last weekend.

Charlottesville Regional

1. Virginia (8)
2. Tennessee (27)
3. USC Upstate*
4. Holy Cross*

Virginia has been sizzling to start 2026, going 2-1 in each of their first two ACC series including a series win over North Carolina. They’re in a great position early on to host, and crack the top eight in our first Field of 64 of the season. Tennessee has been up-and-down this year, and will have a path to hosting if they play well through the SEC gauntlet.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (5)
2. USF (28)*
3. Alabama
4. Wright State*

Florida State is surging in the rankings this week, and they also get rewarded for their series sweep over Wake Forest with a top five overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Seminoles will need to keep winning in the ACC, but they have the ammo to be a national seed. They’re joined by USF, our projected American Conference champion, and Alabama, making this an intriguing regional.

Norman Regional

1. Oklahoma (12)
2. Kansas State (22)
3. Nebraska
4. Austin Peay*

Oklahoma won a massive series over Texas A&M to kick off SEC play, and that has them in early position to host, with top eight potential. And that series could give the Sooners an edge over the Aggies when it comes down to it later on. Kansas State comes in as the 2-seed here, and they have some room to improve their standing during Big 12 play. Nebraska is another intriguing team in a wide-open Big Ten behind UCLA, USC and Oregon.

Phoenix Regional

1. Arizona State (13)*
2. Oregon (20)
3. Dallas Baptist
4. Southeast Missouri*

We have Arizona State as our Big 12 winner in our initial Field of 64, and that gets them a nod as a regional host. The Sun Devils have had a good start to the year, and look like the Big 12 favorite early on. Oregon is another host-caliber team, but the lack of depth in the Big Ten could push them down to the 2-line as opposed to hosting. Dallas Baptist got off to a slow start, but they’re one of our final teams in the field. Their margin of error is small, but have plenty of time to improve their standing.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (4)
2. Wake Forest (29)
3. Louisiana Tech*
4. Bethune-Cookman*

Auburn’s off to a scorching start to the season, and they come in all the way up at No. 4 on the overall seeding line. They look like a clear regional host at this point, and they could even push at the top of the SEC. Wake Forest would’ve been hosting this time last week, but being swept by Florida State has them far lower on the 2-line. They could still get back into the hosting mix, with a ton of ACC series remaining.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (2)*
2. Louisiana (32)
3. Kent State*
4. Lamar*

Texas is the SEC favorite at this point, and for good reason. They have only lost one game, and it came this past weekend in a series win over Ole Miss. The Longhorns were strongly considered as the top overall seed. Louisiana is off to a great start, and entered D1Baseball’s top 25 this week. They’re on the 2-line as of right now.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (15)
2. Texas A&M (19)
3. Duke
4. Nevada*

Once again, Oregon State’s path to hosting is tricky. As of now, they look to be in position but their lack of a conference could hurt them. The Beavers are lacking in weekend RPI opportunities the rest of the way, so they don’t have much of a margin for error at all. But if they win, they’ll be in the hosting picture. Texas A&M could be right on their heels, looking the part as a serious contender despite falling in a series at Oklahoma this past weekend.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (10)
2. Ole Miss (24)
3. UNC Wilmington*
4. Yale*

North Carolina stumbled against Virgina to open ACC play, but bounced back against California this past week. The Tar Heels have a strong roster and should be in contention at the top of the ACC. It wouldn’t be surprising if they get into the top eight mix again. Ole Miss is another potential host themselves, but are on the 2-line for now. The Rebels lost a hard-fought series to Texas this past weekend.

Starkville Regional

1. Mississippi State (7)
2. NC State (25)
3. Creighton*
4. Murray State*

Mississippi State lost their first SEC series to Arkansas, but still look like a serious College World Series contender. They come in as the No. 7 national seed in our initial Field of 64, with room to get back into the top five mix, if not higher. NC State looks to be another contender to host, but for now they come in as a 2-seed. They haven’t been tested a ton yet, as is the case with a lot of teams across the country.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (6)
2. West Virginia (26)
3. UTSA
4. Oral Roberts*

Arkansas began SEC play with a bang, taking the series from Mississippi State. That puts the Razorbacks in position to host as a top eight seed and they come in at No. 6 this week. West Virginia re-entered the top 25 this week, and the Big 12 is wide open giving them a path to moving up even higher. UTSA is another intriguing team, looking like a host themselves before a stunning series loss to UT Arlington this past weekend. Still, they get in as an at-large.

Los Angeles Regional

1. USC (11)
2. LSU (23)
3. Texas Tech
4. Saint Mary’s*

USC has just one loss on the season, coming this past weekend on the back half of a doubleheader in the snow. They’re a serious hosting contender and could push for the top eight. LSU is simply trending in the wrong direction. A likely top eight seed just two weeks ago, it’s fair to wonder how safe the Tigers really should be now. Still, the defending national champions are in this week’s Field of 64 as a 2-seed, but they’re far from secure. Texas Tech is an intriguing Big 12 team, and has themselves in the conversation thus far.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (14)*
2. Florida (17)
3. Louisville
4. Bryant*

Coastal Carolina has dealt with a plethora of injuries, but they’ve overcome them so far. They’re our projected Sun Belt champion and our No. 14 overall seed as a host this week. Florida is another host-caliber team, and they’re the final cut we had from the top 16. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see them get back into the mix quickly. Louisville had sky-high expectations entering the year, but it’s been up-and-down. They get in as a 3-seed in our initial projections.

Atlanta Regional

1. Georgia Tech (3)*
2. TCU (30)
3. Mercer*
4. Rider*

Georgia Tech’s already opening eyes this season, putting up big-time numbers offensively. At this point, they’re the favorite in the ACC and we have them as the No. 3 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. It’d be surprising if they’re not hosting when it’s all said and done. TCU is another team with high expectations that has seen some struggles early. Still, we expect them to rebound and stay in the 2-seed mix, where they fall today.