Bracketology: ESPN shakes up 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions as conference play heats up

The latest ESPN bracketology is here as Joe Lunardi shook up his 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions with conference play heating up. When it comes to January, that’s when the good stuff really begins!

What lies below are the teams on the bubble, good and bad. Plus, we’ll dive into each region and break down the projected matchups.

We’re still a couple of months away from the tournament actually beginning, so the bracketology prediction will certainly change. Without further ado, let’s dive into the bubble teams first!

ESPN Bracketology: On the bubble

Last Four Byes: Saint Louis, LSU, Indiana, Miami
Last Four In: NC State, Ohio State, Baylor, Oklahoma
First Four Out: Boise State, Butler, Virginia Tech, Tulsa
Next Four Out: TCU, Oklahoma State, Creighton, California

Saint Louis, LSU, Indiana and Miami are firmly in the tournament right now. But the current bracketology has a fascinating race from NC State all the way to Tulsa. Creighton, a March Madness regular, has a little work to do to get back in, per ESPN’s Lunardi.

Midwest (Chicago)

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Merrimack/Maryland-Eastern Shore
No. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 Seton Hall
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Murray State
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Memphis
No. 6 Iowa vs. No. 11 VCU
No. 3 Houston vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 Indiana
No. 2 Vanderbilt vs. No. 15 Colgate

Michigan has been far and away the best team lately from a point differential standpoint. So the Wolverines are a No. 1 seed in this latest bracketology. Vanderbilt has been really, really good this season, but it would have a fascinating Sweet 16 matchup with Houston if the seeds hold. Keep an eye on Iowa in this region.

West (San Jose)

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Utah Tech
No. 8 USC vs. No. 9 St. John’s
No. 5 Louisville vs. No. 12 High Point
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 ETSU
No. 6 Virginia vs. No. 11 Baylor/Oklahoma
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 Miami
No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 Montana State

Arizona is still the top team in the AP Poll, even though some may prefer Michigan at this point in the season. The Wildcats would have the edge in this region, but have very intriguing matchups on their side against USC and/or Arkansas, and Louisville. Gonzaga is in its typical slot, but watch out for Nebraska, which has played out of its mind to earn the No. 3 seed in the latest bracketology.

South (Houston)

No. 1 Iowa State vs. No. 16 Grambling/Nicholls
No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 Kentucky
No. 5 North Carolina vs. No. 12 Miami (OH)
No. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 13 Lipscomb
No. 6 Florida vs. No. 11 Yale
No. 3 BYU vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 LSU
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Lindenwood

Iowa State is undefeated right now and a No. 1 seed in Lunardi’s latest bracketology, and has a great path to the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. But the Cyclones do have Michigan State on their side of things.

Duke is the two-seed here, but defending champion Florida is on their side of the bracket, too. This region would be absolute cinema, as the kids say!

East (Washington D.C.)

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Georgia Southern
No. 8 Auburn vs. No. 9 UCLA
No. 5 Kansas vs. No. 12 Liberty
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington
No. 6 Villanova vs. No. 11 NC State/Ohio State
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 Long Island
No. 7 SMU vs. No. 10 Saint Louis
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Vermont

Dan Hurley and UConn are the No. 1 seed in the bracketology update. The Huskies are searching for their third title in four seasons and they seemed poised to have a great shot.

Purdue, on the flip side, wants to get over the hump in March Madness. But the Boilermakers would have Alabama or maybe Villanova in their way. Watch out for Illinois and Kansas on UConn’s side, too!