Bracketology: ESPN 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions see shake up on Selection Sunday

At long last, Selection Sunday has arrived. With just five Conference Championship games remaining, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has shaken up his Bracketology for nearly the final time.

Duke has won 21 of its last 22 games, including the ACC Championship, propelling the Blue Devils to the projected No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. They are primed for a No. 1 seed for the second consecutive season under head coach Jon Scheyer. Big 12 Tournament Champion Arizona, Michigan, and Florida are also projected as No. 1 seeds in Lunardi’s latest Bracketology.

Meanwhile, other Power-Four bubble teams such as SMU, Texas, Oklahoma, and Auburn are waiting anxiously as they hope to hear their name called during the Selection Show. Before we dive into Lunardi’s Selection Sunday morning NCAA Tournament projections, let’s examine the tournament bubble.

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Texas A&M, NC State, Santa Clara, UCF
Last Four In: Missouri, Miami (OH), SMU, Texas
First Four Out: Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State, New Mexico
Next Four Out: Indiana, Stanford, Cincinnati, Seton Hall

West Region (San Jose)

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Howard
No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 High Point
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 North Dakota State
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 SMU/Texas
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 Tennessee State
No. 7 Miami vs. No. 10 UCF
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Siena

Since Arizona lost back-to-back games after opening the season with a 23-0 record, it has won nine consecutive games heading into the NCAA Tournament. This includes wins over five projected NCAA Tournament teams (BYU, Houston x2, Iowa State x2, Kansas, and UCF). Arizona, which knocked off Houston for the second time this season to win its first-ever Big 12 Tournament, has not been a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2022.

Also featured in the West Region is No. 2 seed Michigan State, which has now dropped two consecutive games heading into the Big Dance. No. 3 Virginia, No. 4 Alabama, and No. 5 Wisconsin round out the top five projected seeds in the West. Wisconsin nearly knocked off projected No. 1 seed Michigan in the Big Ten Semifinals, which could have potentially lifted it a seed-line higher.

South Region (Houston)

No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Kennesaw State/Prairie View
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Villanova
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Yale
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 13 Hofstra
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 VCU
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Troy
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 UMBC

Although Florida took a shocking 91-74 loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament Semifinals on Saturday, the Gators are still projected to earn a No. 1 seed for the second consecutive season. It got some help from the other two teams that were vying for a No. 1 seed, UConn and Houston, as they also lost their Tournament games on Saturday. Prior to its loss to the Commodores, it had won 12 consecutive games.

Houston is projected as the No. 2 seed here, in a Region that would seemingly be a two-team race between the teams that clash in last season’s National Championship Game. You can never quite rule out Purdue, Gonzaga, or Texas Tech in the NCAA Tournament, especially with the Red Raiders returning guard Christian Anderson. UMBC is projected to clash with the Cougars, eight years after becoming the first ever No. 16 seed to knock off a No. 1 seed (Virginia).

Midwest Region (Chicago)

No. 1 Michigan vs. No.16 Idaho/Lehigh
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Saint Louis
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 McNeese State
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 USF
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 Hawaii
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 15 Queens

Michigan remains projected as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region, sitting at 31-2 heading into its matchup against Purdue in Sunday’s Big Ten Championship Game. It was the projected No. 1 overall seed prior to its loss to Duke on Feb. 21. No matter what happens on Sunday, it appears the Wolverines have all but wrapped up their first No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2021.

UConn has slipped to the No. 2 seed line after losing two of its final four games heading into Tournament play, including a 20-point blowout loss to St. John’s in the Big East Championship Game. Projected No. 3 seed Nebraska is seeking its first-ever NCAA Tournament victory (previously 0-8), while No. 4 Kansas, No. 5 Arkansas, and a red-hot No. 7 UCLA (depending on the health of Donovan Dent) remain potential sneaky teams to make a run in March.

East Region (Washington, D.C.)

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Long Island
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 12 Akron
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Northern Iowa
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Missouri/Miami (OH)
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Santa Clara
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Furman

Finally, the East Region rounds things out with projected No. 1 overall seed Duke, No. 2 Iowa State, No. 3 Illinois, and No. 4 Vanderbilt leading the way. The star power here would be immense, featuring star freshmen Cameron Boozer (Duke), Keaton Wagler (Illinois), and Mikel Brown Jr. (Louisville), along with All-Big 12 forward Milan Momcilovic (Iowa State) and Big East Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor (St. John’s).

The Region is projected to feature two of the brightest young coaches in the sport in Jon Scheyer (Duke) and T.J. Otzelberger (Iowa State), along with one of the greatest of all time in Rick Pitino (St. John’s.. If this were the bracket, the East Region would certainly be one of the most exciting to tune into.