Bracketology: ESPN 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions see big change as conference tournaments get underway

The latest ESPN bracketology is here ahead of the conference tournaments this week, projecting a lot of new matchups! Not only that, the bubble is about to burst!

The conference tournament features auto bids for winning of course, but teams can make or break their NCAA Tournament chances over the next few days. It’s madness!

So without further ado, let’s dive into ESPN’s latest bracketology projections. We start with the bubble teams!

Bracketology: On the bubble

Last Four Byes: NC State, Texas, Santa Clara, Missouri
Last Four In: UCF, SMU, VCU, Indiana
First Four Out: Auburn, New Mexico, Stanford, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Cincinnati, San Diego State, Oklahoma, California

Auburn coach Steven Pearl made his case for the Tigers, but they better make a run in the SEC Tournament to help their case. ESPN’s bracketology has them painfully close to making it. Indiana can’t lay an egg either, otherwise the Hoosiers might fall out of the bracket.

East (Washington D.C.)

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Howard/Eastern Washington
No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 High Point
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Hofstra
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 UCF/Indiana
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 Troy
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Santa Clara
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 UMBC

Duke is the top overall seed in the latest bracketology from ESPN. They will be the favorite to win the whole thing and the biggest challengers appear to be Michigan State and Kansas in this region. You can’t rule out Alabama or rival UNC, but those matchups wouldn’t happen until the Elite Eight. We’ll see if the Duke injuries hamper the Blue Devils moving forward.

South (Houston)

No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Bethune-Cookman/Lehigh
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 TCU
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 12 USF
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 Liberty
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Missouri
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Texas
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Furman

Florida will begin its title defense as the No. 1 seed in this region, per this edition of bracketology. The Gators have a dangerous Purdue team on their side of the bracket, as well as Rick Pitino’s St. John’s. Houston and Nebraska would be a fun Sweet 16 matchup, if the seeds hold too. But the Huskers have to win their first ever NCAA Tournament game to even think about getting there.

Midwest (Chicago)

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Long Island
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Clemson
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Utah Valley
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 SMU/VCU
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 15 Queens

Michigan tops this region according to the latest bracketology and could run their way to the Final Four. UConn might have something to say about that as Dan Hurley looks to win a third title in four years with the Huskies. Watch out for Ohio State against their rivals in the second round!

West (San Jose)

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Siena
No. 8 UCLA vs. No. 9 Texas A&M
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Yale
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 SF Austin
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Miami (OH)
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Saint Louis
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Tennessee State

Arizona has been solid all season long and the Wildcats are the No. 1 seed in the West. UCLA is intriguing but hit and miss this season. John Calipari and crew could end up winning this region before we know it as well! Gonzaga got another high seed in bracketology and are always lurking.