2027 Bracketology: Way-too-early NCAA Tournament projections with 76-team field

The NCAA Tournament field is expected to expand from 68 teams to 76 this season, leaving more room for bubble teams to enter the mix. While rosters remain in flux based on transfer portal commitments and NBA Draft decisions, enough pieces are in place to start looking toward the 2026-27 season.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the new 76-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

With the ‘First Four’ set to expand, pushing the cutline down from its current location, more teams will have a chance to land on the right side of the bubble. Using that information, here is a way-too-early look at the 2027 Bracketology field from On3 based on proposed changes.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Florida, Michigan, UConn, Duke
Last four byes: Wisconsin, Kentucky, West Virginia, St. Louis
Last four in: Baylor, Creighton, Villanova, Arizona State
First four out: Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, Florida State, Xavier

‘First Four’ (Dayton)

15 Queens (ASUN) vs. 15 ETSU (SoCon)
15 Arkansas State (SBC) vs. 15 Austin Peay (UAC)
16 UMBC (AEC) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)
16 Montana State (Big Sky) vs. 16 Southern (SWAC)
16 Merrimack (MAAC) vs. 16 Long Island (AEC)
16 Navy (Patriot) vs. 16 Tennessee State (OVC)
11 Oklahoma vs. 11 Marquette
11 Stanford vs. 11 Baylor
11 Pittsburgh vs. 11 Cincinnati
11 Georgia vs. 11 Providence
12 Villanova vs. 12 Oklahoma State
12 Creighton vs. 12 Arizona State

East (New York)

Charlotte
1 Florida (SEC) vs. 16 Navy/Tennessee State
8 Ohio State vs. 9 North Carolina
Spokane
5 Tennessee vs. 12 Villanova/Oklahoma State
4 Indiana vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Sacramento
6 Miami vs. 11 Georgia/Providence
3 Arizona vs. 14 UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
Louisville
7 St. John’s vs. 10 West Virginia
2 Illinois vs. 15 St. Thomas (Summit)

1-seed Florida

Florida has plenty of talent set to return for the 2026-27 season, bringing back valuable pieces to the backcourt and frontcourt. The latest news that Thomas Haugh will return for another season alongside Alex Condon is enough to push them into the top spot, with another international reinforcement coming.

2-seed Illinois

Illinois can bring back a good chunk of its talent next season, setting it up to bring in a talented freshman class ready to run the backcourt. The addition of Stefan Vaaks through the transfer portal will help ease that transition as they build on last season.

West (Los Angeles)

Charlotte
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Merrimack/Long Island
8 UCLA vs. 9 Kentucky
Sacramento
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Creighton/Arizona State
4 Gonzaga (Pac-12) vs. 13 Liberty (CUSA)
Omaha
6 Nebraska vs. 11 Pittsburgh/Cincinnati
3 Texas vs. 14 Akron (MAC)
Louisville
7 Texas A&M vs. 10 St. Louis
2 Michigan State vs. 15 Wright State (Horizon)

1-seed Duke

Duke puts together another top-end recruiting class with multiple top prospects, all slotting in different areas of the court. The Blue Devils have confirmed the return of Cayden Boozer and Patrick Ngongba while adding a pair of highly-rated transfers.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State will bring back plenty of talent to the backcourt and the wings next season, although the frontcourt will see big turnover. The incoming recruiting class will help fill gaps, but it will be a position to watch in the transfer portal.

Midwest (Kansas City)

Pittsburgh
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Montana State/Southern
8 Clemson vs. 9 VCU (A10)
Spokane
5 Iowa State vs. 12 Utah State (MWC)
4 Alabama vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Omaha
6 Iowa vs. 11 Oklahoma/Marquette
3 Virginia vs. 14 McNese (Southland)
Fort Worth
7 Kansas vs. 10 St. Mary’s (WCC)
2 Arkansas vs. 15 Queens/ETSU

1-seed Michigan

Michigan looks likely to stay near the top of college basketball next season, with key pieces currently projected to return, along with big additions. The Wolverines have once again invested big in the frontcourt across recruiting and the transfer portal.

2-seed Arkansas

Arkansas loses plenty scoring punch from last season, but lands one of the top recruiting classes in college basketball. The Razorbacks have added on both ends of the lineup through the transfer portal, also landing international star Miikka Muurinen.

South (San Antonio)

Pittsburgh
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 UMBC/Howard
8 BYU vs. 9 Wisconsin
Minneapolis
5 Louisville vs. 12 Memphis (American)
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Belmont (MVC)
Minneapolis
6 Missouri vs. 11 Stanford/Baylor
3 Purdue vs. 14 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Fort Worth
7 USC vs. 10 Auburn
2 Houston vs. 15 Arkansas State/Austin Peay

1-seed UConn

UConn could get back the core of a talented backcourt next season, also hitting the recruiting trail for a talented group of players. The addition of Najai Hines was backed up by the return of star freshman Braylon Mullins, while offseason surgery for Solo Ball will hurt.

2-seed Houston

Houston remains a top team year after year, bringing in another talented recruiting class to complement a returning group. The Cougars also did early work in the transfer portal, quickly building out a solid rotation for next season.