2026 NCAA Wrestling Championships: Dark horse wrestlers in all 10 weight classes

There are a couple of dark-horse wrestlers in each weight class at the 2026 NCAA Wrestling Championships this year. As with every year, something will happen that most of the viewing audience doesn’t expect!

So at On3, we’ve selected some wrestlers in each weight class that look like darkhorses. That could be a surprise run to the national finals or someone out-placing their seed en route to an All-American finish.

So, let’s dive into the dark horses in the 2026 NCAA Wrestling Championships in Cleveland. We’ll start with the lightweights.

125 lbs.

No. 10 Marc-Anthony McGowan, Princeton (15-6)
No. 12 Vince Robinson, NC State (15-4)

We’ll start with Robinson to get the obvious out of the way. Yes, he’s the reigning national champion in a completely random weight (year to year). But the Wolfpack sophomore was seeded 12th and has a tough path to a repeat and that includes an NCAA finals rematch with Troy Spratley (No. 5) of Oklahoma State in the second round! Not to mention he’s on the same side as Sheldon Seymour (Lehigh) and eventually Penn State’s Luke Lilledahl. But, he’s got the talent to make a run.

McGowan came within inches of knocking off Robinson on the frontside last year. He’s certainly a dark horse this year if he wrestles to his ability. He’d had to get through Nico Provo (Stanford) and Eddie Ventresca (Virginia Tech), but the Tiger has something where it wouldn’t be surprising to see him on the podium.

133 lbs.

No. 15 Tyler Knox, Stanford (14-5)
No. 25 Will Betancourt, Rider (23-8)

Knox gets a brutal draw with Ohio State’s Ben Davino in the second round, but if you’re capable of winning there, perhaps you can beat reigning champion Lucas Byrd (Illinois). Knox likely won’t win a title this year, because this weight is bonkers, but he can find his way to the podium as a dark horse.

Betancourt was once an Ohio State guy, but has really excelled now that he’s in full swing at Rider to conclude his career. He has NIU’s Markel Baker in the first round, but he has a realistic path at the quarterfinals, likely taking on No. 1 Jax Forrest (Oklahoma State). The Bronc could make the quarterfinals and have two chances to win one to get on the podium.

141 lbs.

No. 6 Vince Cornella, Cornell (19-1)
No. 14 Braeden Davis, Penn State (12-5)

This weight is pretty much owned by Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez, so it’s really hard to pick anyone else to win the title. But Davis at least brings flair and talent when he wants to. He didn’t have the best Big Ten tournament and is the popular pick not to be an All-American out of all 10 Penn State wrestlers. But won the conference just the other year and could have his chances on the backside.

As far as Cornella is concerned, it’s more so that he’s a dark horse to make the finals. Many are rolling with Mendez and Oklahoma State’s Sergio Vega to meet Saturday night. Cornella has been elite this season and is more than capable of knocking off Nebraska’s Brock Hardy in the quarterfinals. Watch out on the bottom side of the bracket.

149 lbs.

No. 6 Caleb Tyus, SIU Edwardsville (22-2)
No. 24 Andrew Clark, Rutgers (16-10)

Tyus is under the radar and a dark horse, considering he’s not at a Power Four school! But with a 22-2 record, he’s dangerous. He’s on the same side as Cornell’s Jaxon Joy, but don’t rule out this man from making a run to the semifinals and placing in the top six.

Clark has some significant ranked wins under his belt and is one of the more frustrating wrestlers to compete against in a close match. The sixth-year senior might make some noise on the backside after getting to the Round of 16 in 2025.

157 lbs.

No. 6 Jude Swisher, Penn (20-3)
No. 11 Ty Watters, West Virginia (22-3)

Swisher just beat No. 3 seed Meyer Shapiro (Cornell) in the Ivy League Finals and is on the same side again. Could he beat him again? Sure. If he does, this dark horse is likely against 2025 champion Antrell Taylor (Nebraska) in the semifinals, but it’s anyone’s game at the point. On3 likes Swisher as a finals contender. Watters was ranked at No. 1 in the country at points in his career and seems like he’s forgotten about when it comes to contenders. He’d have a matchup with Swisher in Round 2, but if he gets by that, perhaps a run is possible to get on the podium at minimum.

165 lbs.

No. 12 Cesar Alvan, Columbia (27-8)
No. 14 Andrew Barbosa, Rutgers (18-8)

Both of these guys are dark horses to make podium runs at the NCAA Wrestling Championships. Barbosa just beat No. 2 Joey Blaze (Purdue) in the Big Ten tournament, so he’s capable of beating some of the best, even if it has to come on the backside. Alvan is actually an All-American pick from On3, but it should be emphasized here as well. The Ivy League champion has jumped levels under Donny Pritzlaff this season and looks like Columbia’s best shot at the podium in Cleveland.

174 lbs.

No. 9 Beau Mantanona, Michigan (21-7)
No. 15 Danny Wask, Navy (22-4)

It’s hard to pick against Levi Haines (Penn State) to win it all, so these two are podium threats and bracket busters as dark horses. Mantanona would get Haines in the quarterfinals if he gets that far, but is certainly talented enough to do something special. Wask is On3’s hot pick to shake things up and get on the podium. While we didn’t officially predict it, the Navy upper weight can hang with the best of them, being a Top 10 guy most of the year.

184 lbs.

No. 7 Angelo Ferrari, Iowa (11-3)
No. 13 Isaac Dean, Iowa State (17-7)/No. 20 Brian Soldano, Oklahoma (13-8)

Ferrari, yes, we know he was No. 1 in the country! Now that that’s out of the way, he is a dark horse because of his loss to Penn State’s Rocco Welsh, the top seed and others like Aeoden Sinclair (Missouri) and Max McEnelly (Minnesota) being the other title favorites. Not to mention Ferrari would have to beat Sinclair and McEnelly to get to the finals to face Welsh, most likely, but here at On3, we have to say, don’t be surprised if he won the whole darn thing!

We’re also cheating with Dean and Soldano grouped together because the Big 12 upperweights have been so dinged up lately and they’re matched up against each other in Round 1! But both are capable of knocking off some high seeds and making a backside run. This is Soldano’s first NCAA Tournament since 2024, when he had to medically forfeit while at Rutgers.

197 lbs.

No. 24 Brock Zurawski, Rider (22-5)
No. 27 Gabe Arnold, Iowa (18-7)

Zurawski was a surprise last year after winning the MAC and he is much better this year, despite the low seed. He’s certainly a dark horse for the podium and he even has a win over No. 15 Remy Cotton (Rutgers) from earlier this season. The biggest dark horse and wild card is Arnold, who’s wrestled between 174-197 this year. He has wins at all three weights and got in at 197 despite it being his least wrestled weight. Arnold can hang with virtually any of the top guys at each weight. He has Oregon State’s Justin Rademacher in Round 1, so it’s already a difficult path, but the utility man can shake things up this weekend.

285 lbs.

No. 10 David Szuba, Arizona State (22-9)
No. 21 Juan Mora, Oklahoma (19-7)

Szuba has dad strength, so we’re going with that as the reason to be a dark horse! In all seriousness, he has some favorable matchups in the first two rounds before running into, presumably, Isaac Trumble of NC State in the quarterfinals. But like we said before, a quarterfinal appearance means you have two shots to get one win and get on the podium. Mora has quietly had a solid season for the Sooners, but he has a tough Round 1 match against Wisconsin’s Braxton Amos. The front side is tough even if he wins there since he’ll have Ohio State’s Nick Feldman, but the backside bracket could be his friend this weekend.