2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Final Bracketology updates on Selection Sunday

The NCAA Tournament field will be announced at 6 pm ET on CBS, as part of the March Madness selection show. The committee will name the 68-team field, including 31 automatic bids and 37 at-large teams which will compete over the next week in college basketball’s run for a national championship.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As bubble teams sweat out the final hours across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology will update from now until the selection show begins, with live updates after key results. Stay tuned for the latest projections. Last updated at 5:30 pm ET on 3/15.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
Last four byes: Texas A&M, Santa Clara, NC State, UCF
Last four in: Miami (OH), Missouri, SMU, Texas
First four out: Auburn, Oklahoma, SDSU, Indiana

First Four (Dayton)

16 IDAHO (Big Sky) vs. 16 HOWARD (MEAC)
16 LEHIGH (Patriot) vs. 16 PRAIRIE VIEW (SWAC)
11 Miami (OH) vs. 11 Missouri
11 SMU vs. 11 Texas

East (Washington)

Greensville
1 DUKE (ACC) vs. 16 SIENA (MAAC)
8 Villanova vs. 9 Georgia
Portland
5 Kansas vs. 12 NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
4 Alabama vs. 13 NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)
Buffalo
6 Louisville vs. 11 SOUTH FLORIDA (American)
3 Michigan State vs. 14 TENNESSEE STATE (OVC)
St. Louis
7 UCLA vs. 10 Santa Clara
2 Iowa State vs. 15 QUEENS (ASUN)

1-seed Duke

Duke has locked itself into the No. 1 overall seed by winning the ACC Tournament, and will start in the upper left-hand corner of the bracket. The Blue Devils path will start in Greenville, unless they submitted an unreported preferred location, then to Washington D.C. in the second weekend.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State will hold onto a 2-seed spot in bracketology following a strong Big 12 Tournament showing. The Cyclones are likely to land in a region with Michigan or Duke, depending on where Houston falls on the overall seed-line.

South (Houston)

Tampa
1 Florida vs. 16 LEHIGH/PRAIRIE VIEW
8 Ohio State vs. 9 St. Louis
Portland
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 AKRON (MAC)
4 GONZAGA (WCC) vs. 13 HAWAII (Big West)
Greenville
6 BYU vs. 11 SMU/Texas
3 Illinois vs. 14 TROY (SBC)
Oklahoma City
7 Miami vs. 10 Texas A&M
2 Houston vs. 15 FURMAN (SoCon)

1-seed Florida

Florida suffered a loss in the semifinal of the SEC Tournament, falling against Vanderbilt. However, they hold onto the final 1-seed spot after seeing UConn and Houston each take losses of their own.

2-seed Houston

Houston was unable to capitalize on Florida and UConn losing on Saturday, falling in the Big 12 title game to Arizona. The Cougars will land on the 2-seed line, potentially in the top spot on Selection Sunday.

Midwest (Chicago)

Buffalo
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
8 UTAH STATE (MWC) vs. 9 TCU
San Diego
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 HIGH POINT (Big South)
4 ARKANSAS (SEC) vs. 13 CAL BAPTIST (WAC)
Oklahoma City
6 North Carolina vs. 11 Miami (OH)/Missouri
3 Nebraska vs. 14 TENNESSEE STATE (OVC)
Philadelphia
7 Kentucky vs. 10 NC State
2 UConn vs. 15 UMBC (AEC)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan will likely land as the No. 2 overall seed in bracketology regardless of Sunday’s result in the Big Ten Championship. While the Wolverines are not locked into the spot, with Arizona just behind, they will start in Buffalo and travel to the Midwest region either way.

2-seed UConn

UConn will not make the leap to a 1-seed after losing the Big East championship game against St. John’s on Saturday. The Huskies could even slip from the No. 5 overall seed to No. 6 behind Houston as a result, leaving the South region and West region as options with Philadelphia as a starting point.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 ARIZONA (Big 12) vs. 16 IDAHO/HOWARD
8 Clemson vs. 9 Iowa
Tampa
5 ST. JOHN’S (Big East) vs. 12 MCNESSE (Southland)
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 HOFSTRA (CAA)
Philadelphia
6 Tennessee vs. 11 VCU (A10)
3 Virginia vs. 14 KENNESAW STATE (CUSA)
St. Louis
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 UCF
2 Purdue vs. 15 PENN (Ivy)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona finished the season with a Big 12 championship, but will not see a jump in their overall seeding on Selection Sunday after strong showings from Duke and Michigan. The Wildcats will land in the West region, starting in San Diego.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue will compete for a Big Ten title on Sunday against Michigan, but a deep run through the conference tournament should do enough for a 2-seed nod. The Boilermakers are likely to land in St. Louis for the first weekend.