2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch sees new teams enter the mix

The NCAA Tournament bubble has been largely stagnant over the past month, with only small movements week-to-week as the teams involved seem to mirror each other. The lack of a dominant surge up the board has allowed a group of teams to slowly and quietly climb into the mix.

Every team’s position at this point is extremely fluid, with some teams safely in the field just one bad week away from a bubble conversation. Likewise, many bubble teams are one big week from feeling good about themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2026 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

UCF (37) – Stock Up

UCF picked up the biggest win of any bubble watch candidate over the past week, defeating Texas Tech over the weekend. This puts the team on a three-game win streak in Big 12 play, with the marquee game helping enhance their 17-4 record overall.

The schedule does not get any easier for the Knights, leaving them another chance to fly up the board and out of bubble conversations for good against Houston. After that, a stretch of mid-tier conference matchups could determine what seed-line they land on.

Washington (48) – Stock Up

Washington does not hold the overall record most will look for in a bubble contender, currently 12-10 and 4-7 in the Big Ten. However, a weekend win over Northwestern did enough for their computer numbers when compared to the struggling pack around them to shuffle upward.

The Huskies are still on the wrong side of things, but can assert themselves on the bubble quickly with key games against Iowa and UCLA upcoming. To make the cut, they will need to improve the overall record as well, a tough task in the conference.

California (50) – Stock Up

California is another team which has slowly asserted itself somewhere in the bubble conversation by taking advantage of the stagnant nature so far. They have won three of their last four, with wins over North Carolina, Stanford and Miami, but did stumble against Florida State.

The Golden Bears have runway ahead to rise onto the right side of the bubble, bringing the wins needed, but still overcoming some losses on the resume. Georgia Tech and Clemson are next up on the schedule.

Georgia (36) – Stock Down

Georgia dropped its final three games in January, leaving them much more to do in February. They fall all the way into the bubble conversation following a weekend loss against Texas A&M, now standing 4-5 in SEC play.

The Bulldogs have opportunities ahead to resurrect the resume which saw them as high as the 6-seed line during the non-conference schedule and early January. After getting the midweek off to regroup, they return to play against LSU in a game they need to get right.

Miami (39) – Stock Down

Miami still boasts a strong 17-5 record overall, but a weekend loss against California stopped them from a potential rise above the bubble conversation. The record in Q1 continues to be an area which lacks strength, as other teams around them pick up big wins.

The Hurricanes must make the most of their big opportunities in the ACC to maximize their seeding the rest of the way. While they are not currently at risk of sliding all the way out of the field, they must win their upcoming game against Boston College to avoid further damage to the bottom of the resume.

TCU (54) – Stock Down

Not long after being a riser on the bubble, TCU has started the trend the wrong way with an 0-2 week which started against Houston but ended against Colorado. While they will not be punished for the first, the second will serve as a knock when comparing to other teams down the stretch.

The Horned Frogs have a chance to bounce back against Kansas State over the weekend, needing to avoid a bad loss. After that, they get another chance at boosting the resume against Iowa State.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Clemson (31), Duke (3), Louisville (18), NC State (25), North Carolina (26), SMU (34), Virginia (17)
On the bubble: California (50), Miami (39), Virginia Tech (56)
More to do: N/A

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (1), BYU (15), Houston (9), Iowa State (4), Kansas (13), Texas Tech (20)
On the bubble: TCU (54), UCF (37)
More to do: Baylor (55), Oklahoma State (67), West Virginia (66)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (6), Iowa (21), Michigan (2), Michigan State (11), Nebraska (10), Purdue (8)
On the bubble: Indiana (32), Ohio State (41), UCLA (40), USC (47), Washington (48), Wisconsin (42)
More to do: N/A

SEC
In the field: Alabama (22), Arkansas (24), Auburn (29), Florida (12), Kentucky (28), Tennessee (19), Texas A&M (35), Vanderbilt (14)
On the bubble: Georgia (36), Texas (38)
More to do: Missouri (70)

Big East
In the field: St. John’s (23), UConn (7), Villanova (33)
On the bubble: Seton Hall (49)
More to do: Butler (64)

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (5), St. Louis (16), Utah State (27)
On the bubble: New Mexico (43), Santa Clara (44), SDSU (45), St. Mary’s (30), VCU (51)
More to do: George Mason (65), Miami (OH) (52)