2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch sees big stock up, stock down movers

The NCAA Tournament bubble continues to take shape with the conference schedule in full force. Teams slide up and down the board each week as results reset the resume, either building a case or collapsing the progress made.

Every team’s position at this point is extremely fluid, with some teams safely in the field just one bad week away from a bubble conversation. Likewise, many bubble teams are one big week from feeling good about themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2026 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

UCLA (40) – Stock Up

UCLA has been trending the wrong direction in Bracketology for most of the season, slowly drifting toward the bubble conversation. However, that all flipped this week when they knocked off Purdue and added an elite win to the resume.

The Bruins must now parlay that big win into continued success to keep themselves on the right side of the bubble conversation, with manageable matchups on the horizon against Northwestern and Oregon.

SDSU (47) – Stock Up

SDSU has slowly gone from off the bubble conversation in the non-conference slate, to a solid contender for one of the final spots in the NCAA Tournament. They added a big win to their seven-game win streak with a close one against fellow MWC contender New Mexico.

The Aztecs now look to keep themselves on top of the conference, with upcoming games against Grand Canyon and UNLV to really solidify their spot on the right side of the bubble.

Santa Clara (45) – Stock Up

Santa Clara has long been in the bubble conversation through the season, with limited opportunities to raise their stock in the WCC outside of the top-tier matchups. This season, they capitalized with a win over St. Mary’s to insert themselves in the conversation.

The Broncos now look to hold serve against the rest of the conference, including San Diego and San Francisco, before the next shot at Gonzaga in February.

Indiana (37) – Stock Down

Indiana has struggled to adjust in Big Ten play, now dropping four straight games. While they still sit 3-5 in the conference and took those losses against some of the best teams, it leaves an uphill battle to repair the damage done by two weeks of bad results.

The Hoosiers have a chance to get right against Rutgers before diving back into the gauntlet of contenders, which resumes with a game against Purdue.

Seton Hall (44) – Stock Down

Seton Hall is currently on a three-game losing streak in the Big East, including losses against fellow bubble-area teams Butler and St. John’s. The head-to-head will not help them as the resumes continue to become important in evaluating the final spots.

The Pirates have opportunities ahead to right the ship, facing struggling teams like DePaul, Xavier and Marquette over the final days of January.

Utah State (26) – Stock Down

After rising all the way into the Top 25 and establishing themselves above the bubble conversation regardless of their MWC standing, Utah State proved that one bad week can lead to a big slide with losses to Grand Canyon and UNLV.

The Aggies look to flip their fortune with matchups against Colorado State and Wyoming on the horizon, which they need to maintain the strong analytic numbers.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Clemson (27), Duke (2), Louisville (15), North Carolina (30), Virginia (13)
On the bubble: Miami (35), NC State (28), SMU (31), Virginia Tech (54)
More to do: California (59), Stanford (68), Wake Forest (66)

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (3), BYU (12), Houston (10), Iowa State (6), Kansas (18), Texas Tech (17)
On the bubble: Baylor (52), UCF (38)
More to do: Oklahoma State (76), TCU (46)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (8), Iowa (21), Michigan (1), Michigan State (11), Nebraska (7), Purdue (5)
On the bubble: Indiana (37), Ohio State (36), UCLA (40), USC (48), Wisconsin (39)
More to do: Washington (60)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (19), Arkansas (20), Florida (14), Georgia (24), Kentucky (29), Tennessee (25), Vanderbilt (16)
On the bubble: Auburn (34), LSU (50), Texas (42), Texas A&M (43)
More to do: Missouri (70)

Big East
In the field: St. John’s (23), UConn (9), Villanova (33)
On the bubble: Seton Hall (44)
More to do: Butler (51), Creighton (56)

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (4), St. Louis (22)
On the bubble: New Mexico (41), Santa Clara (45), SDSU (47), St. Mary’s (32), Utah State (26)
More to do: George Mason (62), Miami (OH) (49)