2026 NCAA Baseball Tournament: Field of 64 projections entering final week of regular season

The final week of college baseball’s regular season has arrived. After an action-packed Week 13, On3 has updated our NCAA Baseball Tournament projections with a brand new Field of 64.

At this point, it feels like we have 14 teams feeling pretty good about hosting. That leaves two top 16 seeds open, with a ton of teams vying for those spots. The SEC has eight hosts in this week’s projections, followed by the ACC (3), Big Ten (3), Big 12 (1) and Sun Belt (1).

As far as bids go, the SEC also leads the way with 12. They’re followed by the ACC (9), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), Conference USA (3) and Sun Belt (3) as multi-bid leagues.

This weekend’s schedule will be moved up a day for most leagues. Teams will play their final weekend from Thursday to Saturday in preparation for conference tournaments beginning early the following week.

Field of 64 Projections: NCAA Tournament Bubble

Last Four In: Virginia Tech, NC State, Texas State, Purdue
First Four Out: Louisiana, Miami (OH), Troy, East Carolina
Next Four Out: Pitt, Mercer, South Alabama, Southeast Missouri State

The bubble, for now, is on the weaker side. It starts with a pair of ACC teams, with Virginia Tech and NC State in the field, not yet secure, but still pretty comfortably above the rest of the pack here. Texas State also moves into the field, while Purdue jumps back in as our final team. East Carolina drops out, and it joins Louisiana, Miami (OH) and Troy just outside of the NCAA Tournament. Pitt, Mercer, South Alabama and Southeast Missouri all have serious work to do, but aren’t completely out of it just yet.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (1)*
2. UC Santa Barbara (29)*
3. Kent State*
4. San Diego State*

UCLA looked like it was going to lose its first Big Ten series of the season against Oregon this weekend, but stormed back to take two out of three. Even if they had lost, the Bruins would still be the top overall seed. The only team with a real shot at catching them for the top seed would be Georgia Tech. UC Santa Barbara is back up to a 2-seed as well, climbing their way back up in seeding.

Lincoln Regional

1. Nebraska (16)
2. Oregon State (17)
3. Kentucky
4. SIUE*

For the first time this season, Nebraska is hosting in On3’s NCAA Tournament projections. The Cornhuskers swept Iowa over the weekend, reaching 37-14 on the year and 20-7 in the Big Ten and RPI No. 15. They’re not yet secure, but if the season ended today, we’d feel good about the Huskers hosting. Oregon State is 40-11 on the year, with RPI at No. 16. The Beavers are right on the heels of hosting, but just outside for another week.

Hattiesburg Regional

1. Southern Miss (8)*
2. Tennessee (26)
3. NC State
4. Bucknell*

Southern Miss has skyrocketed in recent weeks, taking over as our new projected Sun Belt champion and the No. 9 overall seed. The Golden Eagles are currently 37-14 overall, 19-8 in Sun Belt play and No. 9 in RPI with a strength of schedule at No. 14. It’d be hard to imagine Southern Miss falling out of the hosting race. Tennessee has had a strong push in recent weeks, but it is unlikely to work its way into the hosting mix. The Vols are 34-18, 13-14 in SEC play and No. 31 in RPI.

College Station Regional

1. Texas A&M (9)
2. Wake Forest (24)
3. UTSA*
4. Tarleton State*

Texas A&M lost its series to Ole Miss over the weekend, but still holds on as our No. 9 overall seed with a real chance to end up in the top eight. The Aggies are 37-12 overall, 16-10 in the SEC and No. 10 in RPI. Wake Forest is back into the hosting conversation, though it’s a crowded group it is battling. The Demon Deacons are 35-17 overall, 14-13 in the ACC, No. 17 in RPI and have the No. 9 in strength of schedule. A strong finish to the year could vault them up into the top 16.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (5)
2. UCF (28)
3. Western Carolina*
4. Yale*

North Carolina swept Pitt over the weekend, solidifying itself as a top-eight seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Tar Heels are 40-9-1, 20-7 in the ACC and No. 5 in RPI. They’re a lock to host, and they won’t fall out of the top eight. UCF was once viewed as a hosting candidate, but is now down to the No. 28 overall seed. The Knights won a series over Baylor, but are down to No. 33 in RPI.

Oxford Regional

1. Ole Miss (12)
2. Oregon (21)
3. TCU
4. St. John’s*

Ole Miss locked itself in as a host with its series win over Texas A&M over the weekend. The Rebels are now 34-18, 14-13 in SEC play and up to No. 13 in RPI with the No. 3 strength of schedule. It would take a disastrous finish before the selection show to fall out. Oregon would’ve been a slam-dunk series if it held onto the rubber game against UCLA on Sunday. Instead, the Ducks come in as a 2-seed. At 36-14, 18-9 in the Big Ten and No. 19 in RPI, the Ducks are a legitimate threat to make it into the top 16.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (4)
2. Boston College (31)
3. Texas State
4. Oral Roberts*

Texas stumbled this weekend, but they hold onto a top-four seed and comes in at No. 4 in our latest NCAA Tournament field. The Longhorns dropped two out of three against Tennessee, entering the final week of the regular season 37-12, 16-10 in the SEC and No. 4 in RPI with the No. 6 strength of schedule. They’re a top-eight lock and shouldn’t fall much further than this. Boston College is trending downwards again, barely clinging onto a 2-seed with RPI down to No. 29.

Los Angeles Regional

1. USC (13)
2. Cincinnati (20)
3. Gonzaga*
4. Wright State*

USC’s resume doesn’t scream out as overly impressive, with zero Quad 1 wins. But at 41-12 overall, 19-8 in the Big Ten and No. 8 in RPI, the Trojans are a pretty safe bet to host. If they really stumble, things could change. But right now, they feel pretty secure. Cincinnati is all of a sudden back into the hosting mix, up to 35-18, 15-12 in the Big 12 and No. 21 in RPI with 10 Quad 1 wins. They’d need some help, but they’re right there.

Atlanta Regional

1. Georgia Tech (2)*
2. Missouri State (30)
3. High Point*
4. Fairleigh Dickinson*

Georgia Tech is pretty safe as a top two seed, and it could push UCLA for the top spot if things go right over the next two weeks. The Yellow Jackets are 42-8 overall, 22-5 in the ACC and No. 2 in RPI, leading the country with 16 Quad 1 wins. Missouri State is also back to a 2-seed, currently 30-17, 18-9 in Conference USA and No. 24 in RPI. The Bears don’t have a path to hosting, but they’re trending back upwards.

Morgantown Regional

1. West Virginia (15)
2. Arkansas (19)
3. Purdue
4. Indiana State*

West Virginia is back into the hosting mix. The Mountaineers swept Kansas over the weekend, improving to 35-12, 19-8 in the Big 12 and No. 18 in RPI. They’re still a game behind Kansas in the standings, but they take over as our Big 12 champion in this week’s NCAA Tournament field and leap back into the hosting mix as our No. 15 overall seed. Arkansas has a path back as well, currently 34-18, 15-12 in the SEC and No. 26 in RPI.

Tuscaloosa Regional

1. Alabama (7)
2. Oklahoma State (25)
3. Virginia Tech
4. Binghamton*

Alabama remains our No. 7 overall seed this week. After a series sweep over South Carolina, the Crimson Tide are 35-17 overall, 16-11 in the SEC and No. 6 in RPI, also No. 4 in strength of schedule with 12 Quad 1 wins. They are safe as a host at this point, but aren’t yet secure as a top eight. Oklahoma State isn’t going to have enough to get into the hosting mix, but their surge is impressive. The Cowboys are 33-18 overall, 16-11 in the Big 12 and No. 27 in RPI.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (10)
2. Oklahoma (23)
3. Jacksonville State*
4. North Florida*

Florida State won a series at Clemson over the weekend, and they’re now 36-15 overall, 17-10 in the ACC and No. 7 in RPI with the No. 5 strength of schedule. The Seminoles come in as our No. 10 overall seed in this week’s NCAA Tournament projections, but are still very much in the mix for a top-eight seed. They’re secure as a host. Oklahoma is stumbling, losing a series to Arkansas over the weekend. The Sooners are still No. 20 in RPI, though, keeping them at least alive in the hosting discussion.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (6)
2. Virginia (27)
3. Liberty
4. Niagara*

Georgia clinched the SEC regular season over the weekend. The Bulldogs are 41-11 overall, 21-6 in SEC play, and now No. 14 in RPI after sweeping LSU. They are likely safe as a top eight with their SEC regular season title, but their RPI is holding them back from being a top seed. If they can get that up, or win the SEC Tournament, it’s hard to imagine Georgia not moving up and being a top three or four seed at worst.

Gainesville Regional

1. Florida (11)
2. Coastal Carolina (22)
3. Arizona State
4. Southeastern Louisiana*

Florida also likely locked up a top 16 seed this weekend. The Gators took a series from Kentucky, improving to 34-18, 15-12 in the SEC and No. 11 in RPI with the No. 2 strength of schedule. They also have 15 Quad 1 wins, the second-most in college baseball. They have a path into the top eight if they finish strong. Coastal Carolina, meanwhile, has dropped out of the hosting race. The Chants lost a series to Old Dominion this weekend, dropping their RPI down to No. 25. It seems unlikely that they’ll get back into the top 16.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (3)
2. Miami (32)
3. Saint Joseph’s*
4. Bethune-Cookman*

Auburn continues its rise, taking a road series from Mississippi State over the weekend. The Tigers are now 35-15, 16-11 in the SEC, No. 3 in RPI and No. 1 in strength of schedule. That’s good enough to vault them into our No. 3 overall seed, and definitely locks them into the top eight no matter what happens. Miami remains one of the final 2-seeds, this week coming in at No. 32 overall. The Hurricanes won a series over Louisville and are currently No. 34 in RPI.

Starkville Regional

1. Mississippi State (14)
2. Kansas (18)
3. Michigan
4. Campbell*

Mississippi State remains a host after losing its series to Auburn. The Bulldogs are 38-14 overall, 15-12 in the SEC, No. 12 in RPI and No. 8 in strength of schedule. They’re the last team currently hosting that feels secure, though they aren’t fully locked in. But a good finish to the year would solidify them. Kansas, on the other hand, had a disaster of a week. Being swept by West Virginia knocked the Jayhawks’ RPI down to No. 22 and out of the top 16. If they win the Big 12, they’ll still have a shot. But for now, they’re not a host.